cross-posted from: https://lemmy.zip/post/1253052
Archived version: https://archive.ph/HGfpH
Archived version: https://web.archive.org/web/20230809191901/https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-build-up-forces-west-counter-nato-threat-shoigu-2023-08-09/
Dictators like Putin dare not let their military become powerful. There is too much risk that the military will rise up and depose the dictator. In most NATO countries the military and people believe in the country and rule of law and so they won’t do that. However a dictator doesn’t have that option.
Russia will make a show of building up, but they will be careful about it. Weapons systems that look good in the demo will be ordered in small numbers, but not enough to make a difference in any war as they would be used against them. Even when they do have good systems, leaders are promoted based on loyalty to the dictator, not how good they are.
It’s also not just about intention, but about possibility. Russia lacks well-trained soldiers and modern equipment as demonstrated in the war. They can’t magically solve either of those problems.
No magic needed. Russia has some modern gear that they make themselves. They have some well trained soldiers. They know how to design modern gear. They know how to build more gear. They know how to train good soldiers.
What they can’t do is fix their problems overnight. In just ten years they could fix the problems. Putin is old and statistically unlikely to live ten more years. Their system of government is vulnerable to the military running a coup and taking over so it is unlikely they will fix their problems, but they could.