I know it’s just conventional wisdom, but among those who look back and forward and think about this stuff, it’s been common conventional wisdom for a century that 20 years is an exceedingly long time for change.

I like Bill Gates’ quote the best, “People often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in ten.”

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/01/03/estimate/