I think it’s more likely a compound sigmoid (don’t Google that). LLMs are composed of distinct technologies working together. As we’ve reached the inflection point of the scaling for one, we’ve pivoted implementations to get back on track. Notably, context windows are no longer an issue. But the most recent pivot came just this week, allowing for a huge jump in performance. There are more promising stepping stones coming into view. Is the exponential curve just a series of sigmoids stacked too close together? In any case, the article’s correct - just adding more compute to the same exact implementation hasn’t enabled scaling exponentially.

/avoids answering and smokes up

There used to be very real hardware reasons that upload had much lower bandwidth. I have no idea if there still are.

I don’t know why it didn’t occur to me before this foggy photo, but that thing sure is cyberpunk dystopian, huh?

Remember that Mythbusters (Episode 61 Deadly Straw) that re-created Cleve Backster’s primary perception experiments to show plants can sense malicious intent and totally re-created his results? I had to re-watch it to make sure I was remembering correctly. They totally just alter the experiment until they break it, then sweep it under the rug and call it busted. Totally.

Ditto, I was about to start waxing poetic about my bard.

Oh, my friend, how did you come to trade the fiddle for the drum?

The “caravan” of scary South American migrants that Trump fear-mongered about back in '15 (Jesus, has it been a decade?), they were largely subsistence farmers that were forced off of their lands by multi-year droughts that were demonstrably an effect of climate change. In just the last few years, it’s almost comical how dramatically present the effects of climate change are. Whether or not we’re able to admit it to ourselves consciously, I think everyone feels it. We’re about to hit a dozen different asymptotes, and we’re clearly not ready. So, turns out, fear-mongering is a particularly successful strategy in this kind of zeitgeist.

Yes, but most of them involve constant interaction with people that have forgotten how to interact with people.

I disagree!

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https://www.unitree.com/g1

I can tell from some of the pixels and from seeing quite a few shops in my time.

When I was a little girl I thought that everything, all the abuse and neglect, it somehow made me… special. And I decided that one day I would write something that would make little girls like me feel less alone. And if I can’t write that book…

…if I don’t, that means that all the damage I got isn’t good damage, it’s just damage. I have gotten nothing out of it, and all those years I was miserable was for nothing. I could’ve been happy this whole time and written books about girl detectives and been cheerful and popular and had good parents, is that what you’re saying? What was it all for? - Diane Nguyen, BoJack Horseman, S06E10, “Good Damage”

Yeah, but they encourage confining it to a virtual machine with limited access.

Huh. Grandpa Simpson was right. It did happen to me too.

I keep reminding myself that even to get to the post-scarcity utopia that is TNG, they had to go through a second US Civil War, the Eugenics Wars, 27 years of WWIII, and years of being subservient to space elves. It’ll get worse before it gets better.