• Chainweasel@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    A decade ago, It was predicted that we would hit 1.5°C between 2050-2060, and even as recently as 2 years ago the prediction had moved forward to between 2030-2040.
    The next decade or two are going to be very… interesting

    • alvvayson@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      The IPCC calculations were always criticized for being overly optimistic. Anyone following this debate knew that we would hit 1.5 C sooner rather than later.

      We are definitely going to hit 3 degrees in our lifetime, once the melting tundras release their methane store.

      • Kale@lemmy.zip
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        1 year ago

        Melting tundra releases methane, accelerating the increase in temperature. Rising temperature reduces polar ice, making oceans absorb more heat, accelerating heating. Climate pattern changes cause more frequent and larger wildfires, accelerating heating.

        There are probably processes that work to reduce heating as it increases that I’m not aware of, but there are a lot of positive feedback processes which is concerning.

        I believe the IPCC 1.5C was criticized because it included effects of a carbon sequestering process that hasn’t been invented yet. That’s pretty optimistic.

        • Graphine@lemmy.world
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          1 year ago

          Which is why I support the idea of setting up bases on the Moon and/or Mars.

          Everything is accelerating, and nobody gives a fuck to do anything before it’s too late. I hate the argument that NASA doesn’t push its budget to prevent CC or even Space X. Because stopping CC is a global effort on a colossal scale. It’s not going to work until it’s too late. Might as well get off this rock.

          Edit: Very fucking optimistic of you all

          • frenchtoast@lazysoci.al
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            1 year ago

            Ignore them. They’re so hopelessly black-pilled, they’re not likely to support any significant course of action.

            We’re gonna have to kickstart human expansion into space to not only save ourselves from climate collapse but also what’s left of the biosphere. You’re not wrong at all.

          • floofloof@lemmy.ca
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            1 year ago

            If we can’t make Earth livable we certainly can’t make the Moon or Mars livable. At best it will be a handful of people living miserably for a short time. “Get off this rock” just isn’t a realistic option, and we don’t have the time to make it so.

        • ChickenLadyLovesLife@lemmy.world
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          1 year ago

          There are probably processes that work to reduce heating as it increases

          Nuclear war, for one. In a more naturalistic vein, asteroid strike or massive volcanic eruptions. People worried about climate change just refuse to look on the bright side.

    • ruford1976@lemmy.worldOP
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      1 year ago

      what’s worse is that it’s actually 1.6 C

      it says in the article here

      Data released last week from Copernicus, a branch of the European Union Space Programme, shows August was 1.59C warmer than 1850–1900 levels, following a 1.6C increase in July.

      • rallatsc@slrpnk.net
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        1 year ago

        Yes but only for a couple of months, averaged over the whole year it’s significantly lower than that. Probably still on track to hit the annual average of 1.5 sometime in the next 10-20 years. Still definitely a dire situation but not entirely out of left field based on the recent estimates.

        The recent records have now lifted the year-to-date global temperature to the end of August to 1.35C above pre-industrial levels, just 0.01C behind 2016 — the current record holder

        • ruford1976@lemmy.worldOP
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          1 year ago

          i had my doubts. i was questioning the lack of coverage of this news.

          regardless there is still good reason to be concerned.

      • Sylver@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        Yeah, it’s honestly horrifying to see the lack of reaction around the world. If you live anywhere near the coast, you better get the fuck out or tell your kids to.

        • Serinus@lemmy.ml
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          1 year ago

          I’m already telling people to get out of Florida*. I expect multiple Katrina-level events over the next 15 years. “Florida refugees” is going to become a common phrase.

          Orlando might be more likely to survive than Miami or Tampa, but do you really want to be in the city surrounded by devastation?

          We, as humans, seem to have lost the ability to plan more than 20 years into the future. Florida is still building in areas that are going to be crushed, and the only reaction is from insurance companies.

          We’re not trying to prevent it. We’re not building any kind of defenses or contingency plans. We’re not encouraging people to move out. We’re not preventing people from moving in. In fact, we’re building new and encouraging people to move IN to Florida. It’s full on head in sand.

          • Num10ck@lemmy.world
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            1 year ago

            look at their leadership. look at their voters. look at the short-term profit potential.

            • Dkarma@lemmy.world
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              1 year ago

              Look at the percentage of these purchases that are foreign investors making cash offers and I think u start to see why the insurance companies leaving isn’t having the effect it should.

          • SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca
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            1 year ago

            If that massive icesheet in Antarctica gives way, Florida will be under water.

            At the rate we’re going, I think it will take a cataclysm of that level before people will realize how important this thing is.

          • PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee
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            1 year ago

            Man I have like 5 family members and friends just move to Florida. They were tired of the high taxes and politics of California. At least they won’t burn in a wildfire though!

            • vivadanang@lemm.ee
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              1 year ago

              I wonder if FL is attracting a certain type of moths to a flame… recently had a neighbor move to clearwater

        • Meowoem@sh.itjust.works
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          It’s nice by the coast though, I’d just put aquatic pilings under my house and have a ruggedised shelter built into it. Even if I live to a hundred and fifty with all the ice melted my land will still be under less water than the intercoastal platforms we’ve been routinely building since world war one.

    • PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee
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      1 year ago

      Supposedly the new stringent heavy shipping emissions controls are having an impact on the greenhouse effect. Reduction of sulfur dioxide which had a reverse greenhouse effect is warming the oceans up more.

      “Carbon Brief analysis shows that the likely side-effect of the 2020 regulations to cut air pollution from shipping is to increase global temperatures by around 0.05C by 2050. This is equivalent to approximately two additional years of emissions.”

      https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/#:~:text=Global emissions of sulphur dioxide,warming coming from greenhouse gases.

      So this may be our first example of the threats of NOT enacting terraforming for climate change will have.

      • SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca
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        1 year ago

        It proves that creating cloud cover will impact ocean temperature. There are methods of doing this without creating acid rain. Just spray ocean water as a fine mist into the air and you should get some nice fluffy clouds. We have the capability to cover entire oceans in cloud cover to mitigate global warming.

        Obviously this would have some unpredictable impacts on weather patterns, but we’re already dealing with that no matter what we do. We’re at a point where we’re desperate enough to try some crazy schemes like this.

        • PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee
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          1 year ago

          After September 11th and the COVID lockdowns, scientists noted an increase in global surface temperature due to the absence of contrails. So yes, this is actually something we are already doing!

          Sulfur dioxide however is an even more effective reflector of sunlight compared to water vapor. And don’t forget, water vapor is itself a very greenhouse agent that contributes toward planetary heating.

    • ByteWizard@lemm.ee
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      1 year ago

      They’ve been saying that literally since the 60’s?

      Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand they’re still wrong.

  • kescusay@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    I have kids. I am fucking livid that the assholes who pretend climate change isn’t happening have decided to sacrifice their kids and mine on the altar of making a quick buck.

    You can’t eat money, assholes. And you can’t bring it with you when you die. If the future is nothing but more and more severe weather to the point that civilization collapses under the strain, then I hope you live long enough to see it and are unable to hide from reality anymore.

      • Chetzemoka@kbin.social
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        1 year ago

        They think they do. No amount of money will protect a person from the collapse of a civilization. Never has, never will. Their plans are very much predicated on the assumption that markets will somehow magically continue to function after the general populace has lost all faith in them

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            1 year ago

            I think the reference to collars was more a hypothetical in the article as the author was challenging the bunker dudes how would they ensure the people keeping them safe remained loyal, and that none of them considered anything like “treat them like people before the cataclism”, it didn’t even occur to them at all, instead they proposed a bunch of more controlling measures, which included “disciplinary collars”

          • floofloof@lemmy.ca
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            These billionaires imagine they’re rich because they’re brilliant, not because they’re the biggest assholes and lucky (and born rich). They overestimate their independence from all the people and other creatures that actually make the planet and human society work. Once they get to their bunkers or their Mars outpost, perhaps reality will gradually get through to them. They can’t escape this using bunkers, rockets and weapons.

          • Chetzemoka@kbin.social
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            1 year ago

            They can buy themselves a few years at best without a functioning supply chain. We all depend on society, no matter how much they like to deny it

        • speck@kbin.social
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          They have the money to potentially avoid repercussions long enough. This is especially true when collapse is relatively gradual

    • quantum_mechanic@sh.itjust.works
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      Why did you choose to have kids knowing what kind of future they would have? This is the reason I didn’t, and also to reduce my footprint in the world. I mean even 20 years ago, it was obvious nothing was going to change. So I don’t know why somebody would willingly have children these days.

      • Restaldt@lemm.ee
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        1 year ago

        No… its simply not. Maybe Jimmy John and Mary sue having a dozen offspring in missouri are a slight part of the problem but your average person have one or two is not the problem.

        As with everything in this world: Its the corporations. They are the problem. No amount of reuse, reduction, or recycling by any individual would even register on the graph of emissions/carbon footprint when compared to even a tiny company

        I do agree that its irresponsible to subject yet another human being to the future we are careening towards

        • Evil_Shrubbery@lemm.ee
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          1 year ago

          I mean, I get what you are saying, but if for a few generations only every 10th family would have only 1 child, GHG emissions would fall drastically. Having a kid basically more than doubles ‘your’ own carbon footprint.

          Is this the only, the necessary, or the preferred way? Ofc not. Is it the biggest impact I can personally have on global warming? It is (voting, protesting, buying local & sustainable helps, but whatever you are doing the kids are doing it too).

          It’s sad bcs there are so many ways we could solve this (at least achieve carbon neutrality, tho we need more than that now), but short-term profits of the current elite would suffer a little tiny bit so we can’t do it.

          But additionally now we do need to prep to mitigate consequences and damage control (on top of green/ESG investments) … I wonder if all those profits will be used to finance this …

        • Jack@lemmy.ca
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          1 year ago

          117.7 tonnes of Co2e per kid per parent per year in the USA (58.6 tonnes average when including all the poorer countries).Wynes et al. 2017

          A conservative estimate is that we need to emit less than 2.1 tonnes in total per person per year to try to prevent catastrophic Anthropogenic climate change. Girod et al. 2013 (life expectancy/2050).

          117.7 > 2.1

          We need a fertility rate of about 0.01 for several decades.

          Human overpopulation is not only the biggest contributor to push us into a climate-change tipping-points cascade, it’s also the root cause of almost all its other causes. It’s also the root cause of unsustainable habitat loss and pollution. It’s also the root cause of factory farming and industrial fishing, which causes more pain and suffering every year than all other atrocities ever committed combined.

          As for corporations, they’re not burning the planet for shits and giggles - they’re psychopaths doing it because billions of people are choosing to buy their goods and services, which they want but don’t actually need.

    • LarkinDePark@lemmygrad.ml
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      1 year ago

      Don’t worry about climate change, the US is hell bent on starting global thermonuclear war very soon. We can go fast and crispy instead of slowly choking.

    • juched@lemmy.world
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      This is why we have 2A in the US. Maybe we should start thinking about using it.

  • Rufus Q. Bodine III@lemmy.world
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    1 year ago

    We had a good run. Good luck to the next species to dominate the earth. May you avoid religious dogma, find an economic system that respects your natural environment, and a political system that respects the right to live a clean and healthy world.

      • theodewere@kbin.social
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        we probably taste like shit… they sit around the campfire and remember the good old days of fresh, free range Dino blood as far as the proboscis could poke… not this Walmart meat they get now…

    • Ghostalmedia@lemmy.world
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      Realistically, extinction would be sweet relief compared to what is actually in store for humans with climate change. More likely that we hang around in smaller communities and death / suffering is even more widespread.

      • Vlyn@lemmy.zip
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        I mean realistically it’s all going to hell sooner or later. You’ll start with millions of climate refugees, closed borders, violence. Then climate wars (a wall with machine guns isn’t going to stop people who have no other way to survive). And if a country with nukes (like India) finds itself uninhabitable then things are really going south. Next up you have a possible nuclear war and the end of humanity as we know it.

        Sure, a small amount of humans might survive, but civilization will go down in chaos. Even areas that are inhabitable and have plenty of water will break down, because the local infrastructure can’t support hundreds of thousands of refugees forcing their way in.

          • Vlyn@lemmy.zip
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            Oh, I was more thinking per area. Not all refugees will go to the same place.

            It will start with millions and that might already be enough to cause collapse. When it’s over a billion it’s already over.

            • Hyperreality@kbin.social
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              The whole Syria thing already caused us lots of issues in Europe. Arguably the civil war was caused in part by climate change exacerbating a drought. The surge in refugees helped the far right and populists across Europe and was a factor in brexit.

              I can only imagine what’ll happen if it gets worse. Children of Men is likely to be eerily prophetic.

          • floofloof@lemmy.ca
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            1 year ago

            I’ve seen estimates that say a billion dead by 2100 is the most optimistic possible outcome. Even the notoriously cautious IPCC is making the most unimaginably dire predictions:

            In its report focusing on the impacts of global warming on people and the planet, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that every inhabited continent is already experiencing multiple climate impacts, from droughts and flooding to biodiversity loss and falling food production. Between 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in areas “highly vulnerable to climate change,” the authors warn, with “additional severe risks” should the Earth warm beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). (From an article in Forbes magazine.)

    • Chocrates@lemmy.world
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      1 year ago

      I wonder if primates are incapable of building a global economic system that doesn’t end in disaster

  • giacomo@lemm.ee
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    1 year ago

    Haven’t they heard of the american method? Don’t they know the cure for X is more X?

    We just need to add some more global warming and that will solve global warming!

    Or is that just applicable to guns and debt?

    • WaxedWookie@lemmy.world
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      Nah - it’ll just pivot to “Well it’s too late now - no reason to hold back”.

      I genuinely wonder why eco-terrorism isn’t already a meaningful “problem” - I don’t mean “some protestors blocked a road for a couple of hours or flinged some paint and soup around” - I mean “You’re working to kill all known life in the universe, and we’re doing whatever it takes to stop you.”

      • sheogorath@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        There’s no one funding it. If some of the billionaires can direct their money to make renewables adopted in the mainstream we can be in a much better place now. But, you know to have that amount of money the switch that also governs your care for the environment gets switched off too.

        • sinedpick@awful.systems
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          The problem is far worse than what any single billionaire can fix. Billions of dollars are being poured into renewable energy infrastructure. It’s just that while this is happening, we’re also emitting the same amount of CO2 as always. The only long-term resolution of this is de-growth.

        • WaxedWookie@lemmy.world
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          1 year ago

          Explosives and rifles aren’t expensive. There’s a reason the best funded military in the world consistently gets slowed up by insurgents.

          While big funding would certainly help, this is more an issue of motivation (which expensive media campaigns would certainly help).

          I’m not advocating for any of this, but as long as innocents weren’t caught up in it, I wouldn’t lose a wink of sleep over it either.

      • The Menemen!@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        Hm? The homeopathic approach to climate change would be to dissolve a tree in 100,000m³ of alcohol, pour that into the ocean and wait for results.

        • dQw4w9WgXcQ@lemm.ee
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          1 year ago

          Homeopathic processes aim at curing by introducing a very low concentration of the disease, so effectively curing x by adding x. I think your example would make sense if it was oil or CO2 instead of a tree.

          • The Menemen!@lemmy.world
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            Burning a tree also sets free a lot of CO2. :) Heating with wood is not sustainable at all, unlike some lobbyist made us beliveve.

            But yeah, oil would have been the more obvious example.

      • InputZero@lemmy.ml
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        I am so glad that garbage uses homeopathic rather than holistic these days. You want a doctor that takes a holistic approach, they’re looking at your whole body not just their specialty. Homeopathic =/= holistic.

    • Buffalox@lemmy.world
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      Apart from the voting which is above all else, if you REALLY want to do something on an individual basis, you should reduce your meat or become a vegetarian. It seems that’s what experts claim has the biggest impact. Apart from that, don’t have children, or 2 at most.

      • Bipta@kbin.social
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        1 year ago

        Please don’t have children. Think about the life you’re condemning them to.

      • hardypart@feddit.de
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        If we don’t have children because we care for our planet, we leave the world to those who don’t care at all. Not sure if this is the right decision.

        • JackGreenEarth@lemm.ee
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          Same with atheism, religious people have more children, so the religious population is increasing, despite people deconverting.

        • Buffalox@lemmy.world
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          Honestly, I haven’t thought of it like that. I guess that’s a decent point. But having more than 2 children, and you are part of the problem.

          • PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee
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            My family had one kid. So we went from I believe seven grandparents and great aunts and uncles down to one child just within two generations!

            At this rate my family could depopulate the whole planet in no time.

            Also a friend of mine just told me that he met a lady who had 22 siblings so…

      • Rose@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        Why vegetarian, not vegan? Cows are a major contributor to the emissions, and people tend to increase their dairy consumption when going vegetarian.

      • Resonosity@lemmy.ca
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        Going vegetarian doesn’t seem to be the most impactful when you look at the numbers, as per this video. Vegan diets still have the lowest GHG footprint and GWP of all diets.

        That being said, I went vegetarian first before going vegan. So your point is entirely valid.

        • Buffalox@lemmy.world
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          Honestly I wasn’t aware the difference is that big. I thought cows were bad mostly for the meat, but apparently milk is at least as bad. 🤥

          That sucks. ☹️

          • Resonosity@lemmy.ca
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            1 year ago

            If you want to see what the heck veganism is about compared to vegetarianism, check this resource out.

            But yeah! Leather is also bad for the same reason, contributing to the same industry. There are alternatives out there so don’t feel bad!

            One step at a time, like you’ve mentioned in your other comments.

      • commie@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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        reduce your meat or become a vegetarian

        i’m dubious about this. don’t get me wrong: i try to make sure at least half my calories come from soylent. i’m saying i have looked at the methodology, and it doesn’t seem sound. HAVING READ THE RELEVANT STUDIES it’s not clear to me that the researchers are even drawing correct conclusions.

        here’s an example that i think can be extrapolated across many data points: cotton seed. first, cotton is grown for textiles. like, exclusively. like, the only reason to grow cotton is for textiles. BUT you can increase the profits from your cotton harvest if you sell the seed to cattle operations. so cattle are fed cottonseed. then the water and land-use costs of cotton get rolled into the costs of raising cattle. but that’s nonsensical. cottonseed is purely waste product, and giving it to cattle CONSERVES resources.

        soybeans are another thing altogether, and the complexity of the whole agricultural system implies, to me at least, that maybe it’s not so simple as “reduce your meat intake”.

        • Buffalox@lemmy.world
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          I must admit it’'s not super intuitive to me either, but it seems the consensus is pretty strong among experts, and I haven’t taken the time to really delve in deep on the issue.

          But apparently a significant part of the problem is that cows make a lot of methane, that is a very bad greenhouse gas, and when it breaks down it’s to CO2 which is still a greenhouse gas. So kind of a bad double dip as I understand it.

      • Buffalox@lemmy.world
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        This, it’s the only thing that really counts, we all need to pull together, the only way to do that, is to vote in politicians that actually give a shit.

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            1 year ago

            Oh boy not the false equivalence again. If you don’t give a shit yourself then don’t vote.

            It makes a difference who gets the power, and your main influence is your power to vote.

            • Slowy@lemmy.world
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              1 year ago

              I always do vote for the party with most proactive views on climate change.

              I just feel really jaded that they are going to make much of a difference, short term capitalistic gains seem more important to all

              Edit - I’m also beginning to feel that voting isn’t my most powerful move. Disruptive protests are looking better and better.

              • Redscare867@lemmy.ml
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                1 year ago

                Voting is the absolute smallest political action anyone could ever take. Protest always has been and always will be more effective at moving the needle. Above all else these ghouls want to preserve capitalism. If it looks like the only way they preserve capitalism in the near term is capitulating to the demands of environmentalists then that is what will happen. Of course in the long term capitalists will attempt to erode these gains just like they have done with social safety nets in various countries for largely the same reasons (increased rate of profit).

              • Azal@pawb.social
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                1 year ago

                You’re right, voting isn’t the most powerful thing you can do.

                It’s getting involved in politics altogether, getting more people to vote.

                And not “We got the president and maybe a senator” vote. The crowd that’s fighting climate change every step of the way has infested all the way down to the local levels making it harder to vote on the national platforms. I’d say this is a US thing, but if there’s voting, they seem to be infesting all of it.

              • Buffalox@lemmy.world
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                1 year ago

                It may not be the most powerful for all, but for most it is.

                Just don’t go along with something like Just Stop Oil, that’s not constructive or helpful in any way, and it’s off-putting for the vast majority tiring people of the issue, rather than waking their interest.

          • vrojak@kbin.social
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            1 year ago

            Yes, some that really give a shit might not be a part of a major party in whatever country you live in, but even among established parties there are people who are more inclined to do something about the climate catastrophe than others.

      • Ultraviolet@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        Depends on your definition of peaceful. Industrial sabotage that specifically targets unmanned equipment would still be peaceful by my definition, for example.

    • genoxidedev1@kbin.social
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      1 year ago

      Honestly, I’m pretty sure the deficit we could create on an individual basis will just be used by companies instead, so I’m just gonna agree with the others on voting being the most effective method of making a difference.

    • darq@kbin.social
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      1 year ago

      As others have said, voting is important. But also I’d guess that direct action will play a large role in the next few decades.

    • Resonosity@lemmy.ca
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      Some changes people (in the US or elsewhere) might want to check into:

      • See if your local electric utility has Green Power programs where you can elect to have your power come from renewables (via credits) for 2-5% of your bill/month extra
      • If you own a home, consider making switches to more electrified stuff like: induction cookstoves v. natural gas, heat pumps v. AC units, power tools that have batteries and/or cables v. gasoline or diesel, adding solar panels to your roof or property (only costs ~$20k these days), etc.
      • Start moving your pensions or stocks into greener index funds, or even consider adopting banks and credit unions that publicly disclose which projects and companies they invest your dollar in
      • Consider buying your groceries from local farmer’s markets or farms that have mail-to-your-door programs (aka CSAs or Community Supported Agriculture programs); this is a good resource to learn more about the farms near you
      • Switch to non-red meat diets, and then after that switch to a vegetarian diet, and then after that switch to a vegan diet (all while consulting health professionals); this is a good resource on vegan diets if anyone is curious
      • Consider choosing a Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV; 100% electric) or a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV; 50/50 electric/gas) as your new car; this resource can steer you in the right direction
      • Vote in primary elections where candidates prioritize climate action, then vote for them again in general elections when the time comes; this is a good resource to stay up on current civic events
      • Buy clothing/shoes used, or if you need to buy new, look for the GOTS and OEKO-TEX labels to make sure what you’re buying is organic, is ethical, and doesn’t pollute local environments of where your clothes/shoes are made
    • GreenMario@lemm.ee
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      1 year ago

      Don’t procreate. Or if you do just yeet the baby into a furnace to skip a few steps, same outcome really.

    • SeaJ@lemm.ee
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      1 year ago

      Yeah, it should at least be reported in Fahrenheit. Then you can say 98.6°F is normal human temperature whereas 2.7° higher, 101.3, is an unpleasant fever. Then imagine if that fever never goes away. At 5.4° higher (the 3°C we will almost certainly hit), your brain boils.

      • eee@lemm.ee
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        1 year ago

        The problem with Fahrenheit is that literally nobody outside the US knows what it means lol

  • AutoTL;DR@lemmings.worldB
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    1 year ago

    This is the best summary I could come up with:


    This year is now almost certain to become Earth’s warmest on record after a hot July and August saw global temperatures reach the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time.

    Data released last week from Copernicus, a branch of the European Union Space Programme, shows August was 1.59C warmer than 1850–1900 levels, following a 1.6C increase in July.

    This upward swing should ensure 2023 becomes the new warmest year on record, an assessment shared by the Bureau of Meteorology’s Senior Climatologist Blair Trewin.

    “If current 2023 temperature anomalies are maintained, or increase, over the last four months of the year that would be sufficient for an annual record to be set,” he said.

    Major global climatological records have fallen at a rapid rate across the Earth’s atmosphere, hydrosphere and cryosphere, including:

    “A large part of it is the removal of the cooling influence of La Niña which has been suppressing global temperatures over the last two to three years,” Mr Trewin said.


    The original article contains 531 words, the summary contains 167 words. Saved 69%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!